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The evolving relationship between Armenia and Russia has seen dramatic shifts in recent years, particularly in the wake of Armenia's devastating defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Once heavily reliant on Russian military support, Armenia now finds itself questioning the reliability of this partnership. As Russia grapples with its own military commitments in Ukraine and its shrinking influence in the South Caucasus, Armenia has begun to explore alternative alliances, deepening ties with countries like France and India. But with Russian troops still stationed in Armenia and economic dependencies persisting, can Armenia truly pivot away from Moscow's orbit? We explore the complexities of Armenia's balancing act between historical alliances and new geopolitical realities.
LISTEN TO THE PROGRAM HERE
EPISODE SUMMARY:
PART I: An Island in the Mountains - (05:25)
with Olyesya Vartanyan
- Independent regional security analyst
- South Caucasus specialist
- Specialising in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia
Armenia's historical security challenges: Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia faced significant security challenges due to its geographic location and lack of energy resources. These issues were exacerbated by strained relations with neighbouring Azerbaijan and Turkey, both of which have imposed economic blockades, further isolating the country and limiting its defence options.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict's long-term impact: The unresolved conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has remained a central issue for Armenia since the early 1990s. Despite initial Armenian success in securing the region, Azerbaijan's military victories in 2020 reshaped the balance of power, leaving Armenia vulnerable and dependent on Russian peacekeepers to prevent further losses.
Dependence on Russia for security: Armenia's continued reliance on Russia stems from its precarious security situation, particularly with the presence of Turkish and Azerbaijani forces. This dependency has been formalised through Armenia's CSTO membership and the stationing of Russian military forces, which are seen as vital to maintaining the country's territorial integrity.
Armenia's economic limitations: Armenia's economy has struggled due to its geopolitical isolation and lack of natural resources, making it highly dependent on imports, particularly from Russia. Transportation routes via Georgia or Azerbaijan are costly and inefficient, further complicating the economic situation and limiting defence spending.
Political instability and leadership challenges: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's popularity has dramatically declined since Armenia's defeat in the 2020 war. While he remains in power, his government faces growing internal dissatisfaction over security failures, economic stagnation, and the lack of progress in resolving tensions with Azerbaijan, with major tests looming in future elections.
PART II: The Marriage to Moscow - (27:36)
with Laurence Broers
- Associate Fellow, Chatham House
- Co-founder, Caucasus Survey
- Author, South Caucasus conflict studies
Collapse of Armenia's Deterrent Capability: By 2022, Armenia's deterrent system had effectively collapsed, as seen in Azerbaijan's large-scale cross-border incursions, particularly during the September 2022 conflict. Armenia's failure to respond militarily, even with its newly acquired Russian jets, was due to significant losses from the 2020 war and the subsequent difficulty in acquiring Russian munitions and parts, leaving Armenia in a precarious defensive position.
Russian Inaction and Strategic Ambiguity: Despite earlier Russian statements indicating a possible military intervention to defend Armenia under the CSTO, Moscow chose to remain inactive during the conflicts in 2020 and 2022. This highlights Russia's use of "pivotal deterrence," a strategy involving ambiguous signals to maintain influence without committing to military action, ultimately undermining Armenia's security expectations from its alliance with Russia.
Armenia’s Strained Relationship with the CSTO: Armenia's disillusionment with the CSTO became evident after the lack of support during border clashes and Azerbaijan’s occupation of Armenian villages. Despite holding the rotating chair of the organisation, Armenia’s calls for CSTO intervention were dismissed, leaving the country frustrated and questioning the efficacy of the alliance while still being constrained by its membership due to broader geopolitical dependencies.
Shifting Military Alliances and Arms Procurement: Following the drastic reduction in Russian arms supplies due to the Ukraine war, Armenia was forced to diversify its arms suppliers, securing deals with countries such as India, France, and Greece. This shift marks a significant realignment in Armenia’s defence procurement strategy, though it has faced backlash from Azerbaijan, particularly over French arms sales.
Challenges in Armenian Sovereignty and Foreign Policy: Armenia's dependence on Russia remains a key dilemma, despite growing dissatisfaction and efforts to diversify alliances. Armenia's attempts to move towards a multipolar foreign policy have been constrained by Russia's military presence and broader regional dynamics, including the strategic cooperation between Russia, Iran, and Turkey, which limits Armenia's ability to forge alternative security partnerships.
PART III: The Middle Man - (58:08)
with Thomas De Waal
- Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
- Author, The Caucasus: An Introduction
- Former journalist, BBC and Moscow Times
Armenia's Military and Diplomatic Weakness: Armenia's military position has weakened significantly since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, making it heavily reliant on diplomatic negotiations with Azerbaijan to secure peace. Despite recognising Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, Armenia’s limited military options and the pressure from external actors like Russia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan complicate its ability to shift the security dynamic in its favour.
Azerbaijan’s Strategic Flexibility: Azerbaijan maintains a strong military and economic position, with the ability to use force or pursue diplomatic agreements depending on its strategic interests. Backed by alliances with Turkey and significant oil and gas revenue, Azerbaijan can afford to delay or manipulate peace negotiations with Armenia, using the conflict to bolster internal nationalist support and maintain political power.
Zangezur Corridor Concerns: Armenia’s hesitation to reopen the Zangezur Corridor stems from fears that Azerbaijan may use civilian transit as a pretext to establish a military presence. Given the history of violence between the two nations, even minor provocations could escalate into larger confrontations, further solidifying Azerbaijan’s control over the corridor and diminishing Armenia's sovereignty in the region.
Iran’s Role in the South Caucasus: Iran seeks to maintain influence in the South Caucasus, particularly through its support of Armenia and opposition to an Azerbaijan-Turkey-controlled corridor. With strategic concerns over Israel’s ties with Azerbaijan and the potential for diminished Iranian influence, Tehran views the region as critical to its geopolitical interests and as a buffer against Turkish-Azerbaijani dominance.
Russia’s Waning Influence in Armenia: While Armenia remains economically and militarily dependent on Russia, the relationship has deteriorated, particularly after Russia’s failure to protect Armenia during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts. Armenia’s efforts to diversify its foreign policy by engaging with the EU, France, and India are constrained by geographical isolation and Russia’s continued dominance over its energy and security sectors.
Armenia's Changing Relationship with Russia
(Released Oct 24th)
THE RED LINE'S EPISODE 126 READING LIST:
I: Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan through Peace and War
- By Thomas De Waal
II: Armenia's Velvet Revolution: Authoritarian Decline and Civil Resistance in a Multipolar World
- By Laurence Broers and Anna Ohanyan
III: Near Abroad: Putin, the West, and the Contest over Ukraine and the Caucasus
- By Gerard Toal
This episode is dedicated to our Patreon members: Florian Vogl, Ryan Persaud, Caspian, Willian Adir, A, Kevin Pierce, Eclone, KBH, Todd, Jack Binns and Ayman Elmasri
